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Client tool

Rate Expectations

See the Canadian and US interest-rate paths priced into futures, and how those expectations are changing.

Client access required

Put each rate decision in context.

Switch between the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve to explore expected policy rates, the move priced at each meeting, and the cumulative change from the policy reference.

Compare the latest available pricing with earlier observations, inspect meeting outcomes, and download the meeting table for your treasury discussions. Pricing dates and conventions stay visible alongside the figures.

Client access: Sign in with client-tool permissions to open the interactive dashboard.
Illustration of the Rate Expectations tool, with rate paths and meeting outcomes

Illustrative view. Open the client tool for dated market observations.

Follow the path

See expected rates after each published decision, with a clear distinction between the move at a meeting and the cumulative change.

Explore meeting outcomes

Review Canadian hike, hold and cut equivalents, and the modelled distribution of US target ranges after each meeting.

Track repricing

Overlay earlier rate paths and compare historical meeting pricing. Export the current table as a CSV for further analysis.

Read the pricing, understand the assumptions

Futures price average overnight rates. Estimating individual meeting outcomes requires assumptions, especially for later Canadian meetings inferred from quarterly contracts. The dashboard identifies indicative estimates, distinguishes closing prices from delayed quotes, and keeps unsupported meetings visible as unavailable.

Market-implied expectations include risk premiums and may change quickly. They are useful context for financing, cash-flow and currency discussions, rather than a prediction of central bank decisions.